Probability According to Taleb

Probability is about the belief in the existence of alternative outcomes, causes, and motives. - Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Fooled By Randomness

Wow. . .

Taleb on Success

Our brain is not cut out for nonlinearities. People think that if, say, two variables are causally linked, then a steady input in one variable should always yield a result in the other one. Our emotional apparatus is designed for learning causality. For instance, you study every day and learn something in proportion to your studies. If you do not feel that you are going anywhere, your emotions will cause you to become demoralized. But reality rarely gives us the privilege of a satisfying linear positive progression: You may study for a year and learn nothing, then, unless you are disheartened by the empty results and give up, something will come to you in a flash. My partnr Mark Spitznagel summarizes it as follows: Imagine yourself practicing the piano every day for a long time, barely being able to perform "Chopsticks", then suddenly finding yourself capable of playing Rachmaninov. Owing to this nonlinearity, people cannot comprehend the nature of the rare event. This summarizes why there are routes to success that are nonrandom, but few, very few, people have the mental stamina to follow them. Those who go the extra mile are rewarded. - Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Fooled By Randomness

What Mr. Taleb is saying is that rewards (or punishments) do not come incrementally. Frequently, it comes in big chunks and in periods few and apart.

There two things two learn here. One, we have to be patient in our endeavors. Say you studied hard and did all the right things in school. Now, you are looking for a job and it is taking a long time to get a good one. You can't just give up thinking that the system is impossible. You have to understand that finding a job, like many things in life, does not work like a linear function wherein you get one call for every application that you submit.

The second thing to learn here is that we will eventually get punished if we keep on hanging onto our wrong practices. Drunk driving is a classic example. We might be able to get away with drunk driving unharmed more often than not. Eventually, however, if you do it frequently enough, this bad habit will probably get you into a big accident.

Conversation With An Agnostic 2

For many people, their moral outlook in life is driven by their respective religions. Since you don't have one, what is the basis of your moral outlook?

I think that morality is pragmatic, not spiritual. Having moral standards and abiding by these, in other words, are practical.

Backing up this simple statement requires a long explanation, and I will not get into that right now. There are many philosophers who have pondered on this matter extensively so I would suggest that you look at some of their work. I will give a brief explanation though.

The establishment of laws which deals with morality seems to have been initiated by religious leaders in the past. However, as societies grew intellectually more sophisticated, the subjects or audiences of these rules transitioned from 100% religious to a mix of religious and non-religious people.

If laws are purely spiritual and not logical or practical, then an overwhelmingly number of non-religious people will probably oppose it in one way or another. The reality, however, is that most basic laws are implicitly understood and accepted by the majority proving that morality is discernible.

I heard from someone that you pray. Is this true?

Yes, I do pray.

When I pray, I don't make assumptions. I don't assume that anyone is listening. I just believe there is a possibility that someone is listening. I don't assume that my prayers will be answered. I just believe that there is a possibility that it would be answered.

Like I said, I don't make any assumptions about the nature of God. For all we know, it could be in his/her nature to listen to and to answer prayers. At the same time, he/she could not be listening.

Do you think God is good?

Honestly, I don't know for sure. This has been one of the questions that really bothered me for a long time.

My life has been good, but my life is not the gauge for God's goodness or badness. I can't say God is good because he blessed me. I know for a fact that a lot of people say this. It just doesn't make sense.

I have good reasons to believe that God is probably good though. I am not young. I have already lived, at least, 1/3 of my life. I have seen many things. One consistent thing that I have observed about the design of the world is that people, in most cases and over the long run, get what they deserve. Yes, this design is not perfect. Some people suffer from injustices and unfairness then die after without being redeemed. Some people get away with their bad deeds without being punished. However, once again, most people over the long run get what they deserve.

I observed that people who really toil improve their lives materially, if not immediately, over the long run. People who refuse to toil, on the other hand, worsen their lives materially over the long run. People who are moral, who do the right things, are rewarded with peace of mind. Those who aren't, on the other hand, are usually punished with guilt, fear and insecurity.

Again, it is not a perfect system but you can tell that it is there. The rewards and punishments might not be consistently there or might not be commensurate with the efforts or the lack of it all the time. In the long run, however, you can see that it is there.

I believe that a being responsible for such a fair system is probably a good being.

Admittedly, however, this proof of God's goodness might not be so strong. In the first place, it is based on a human being's logic, my logic, which is possibly limited or flawed.

Conversations With An Agnostic

Do you believe in the existence of God or a God?

Yes, I do. It's absurd to deny that a higher being created all things that exist and that existed. To me, the creator or these creators are God.

Do you subscribe to any religion?

No, I don't.

Why not?

I don't believe that any living person really knows about God - this being's nature, this being's intentions, etc. Here on Earth, we can only guess or make up answers.

Are you saying that Christianity, Islam, and all other religion out there are false?

I am not in a position to judge every single religion out there yet. My knowledge as of the moment is limited to Christianity.

The foundation of the Christian religion is the Bible which Christians generally believe to be the source of truths.

There are a lot of stories about God or Yahweh in the Old Testament. Yahweh was an active participant in many of these stories - communicating with prophets, participating in battles, etc. In the vast Christian community, disagreements about the nature of these stories abound. Are these stories literal or symbolical?

If these stories are symbolical, then its usefulness as evidence to the authenticity of Judaism and Christianity is not much. If, however, the involvelment of Yahweh are proven to be factual and not biased or miscontrued interpretion, then that's going to be a pretty solid plus to these religions. The problem is that no one has proven the authenticity of Yahweh's involvement in these fantastic stories.

This is also the case for the stories about Jesus in the New Testament - the Immaculate Conception, the many miracles, and the Resurrection. No one has proven the authenticity of these out of the ordinary events.

Others would say that the witnesses, Jesus' disciples among them, verify that Jesus is God. Sure, they might have sincerely believed that Jesus is God or is the son of God. I don't question their sincerity. I just question their reasons for believing.

In trials, if the evidences presented are very solid, you can expect any judge whom you assign to the case to come to the same verdict. The same goes for scientific findings. For instance, absolutely nobody in the world can deny that gravity exists because it is verifiable.

In the case of Christianity or other religion, obviously, the evidence presented are weak hence the differences in verdicts as to which religion is the correct one.

Notice how the choice of religion, for most people, is linked to geographical or cultural background. If any religion is truly defendable, this should not be so.

Let me just add that there are people who find the teachings in the Bible to be correct. Because they agree with its teachings, they conclude that everything else in the Bible is true. I think that this is a flawed way of arguing for the Bible. Its like saying, "this guy, so far, has not made a mistake. Therefore, he can never make a mistake."

Why do many people subscribe to religion then?

I think that there are many reasons.

You know how, sometimes, because of the lack of a better answer, you stick to the one at hand or to the answer everyone else seems to believe in? During Aristotle's time, for instance, the world was believed to be flat and for the lack of a better answer, everyone agreed to it.

Not many people question religion, especially religions that seem so universally true because everyone you know seems to believe in it. That's one reason.

For those who do question, well, perhaps they think it is safer to just believe even when they are not logically convinced. I think the philosopher Pascal's reasoning captures this point well.

The philosopher Pascal proclaimed that the optimal strategy for human beings is to believe in the existence of God. For if God exists, then the believer would be rewarded. If God does not exist, he does not have anything to lose. - from Fooled By Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

I read something just now that says we all see what we want to see. This is also another reason. We tend to justify things that we want to believe in.

I, on the other hand, choose to say "I don't know" 'cause I really don't instead of settling for an unconvincing answer.

How did the popularity of these religions come about anyway?

I am not sure. I am trying to get to the bottom of it by reading about the history of these religions, but let me try answering your question.

Have you read Da Vinci Code? Many people were shocked by the theories about Jesus Christ's life presented in the book. His possible marraige to Mary Magdalene, etc. While those grand theories are interesting, I found one subtle theory more interesting and revealing - the theory that Christianity got its start after it was promoted as a political move, rather than a move driven by faith. It was used to unite people during those times - pagans, Christians, and others.

Ok, this theory is not necessarily accurate. I am not saying it is inaccurate, but I am definitely not saying that it is accurate. In history, only the actual events are somewhat clear. The causes and motives often times are less clear.

We know that Christianity spread like wildfire eventually becoming one of the biggest religions in the world today. We do not know what tipped (coined from "The TIpping Point") the religion into this stature. But I speculate that the cause is probably a series of political events that legitmized the religion. One such event - the conversion of an emperor, Constatine, into Christianity in the 4th century which got Christianity one of its big political break.

What do you think of people who have religion?

I respect people who have religion. I know many smart people who are religious. Many of the greatest minds in history were religious. I respect them and their rights to choose.

At the same time, I would like to urge religious people to be accomodating of other people's beliefs as well. Many people who do not subscribe to any religion have given the subject a lot of thought and attention. Their refusal to not choose is not necessarily out of spite to any religion but rather from geniune uncertainty. After all, many of history's most intelligent people are/were agnostic - Albert Einstein, Milton Friedman, Bill Gates, etc. Surely, these people did not just reject the religions of this world without giving them some thought.

Funny Article

This is a really funny article posted by my frend in Japan - http://samurai-seven.livejournal.com/22441.html. I am trying to come up with my favorites but I couldn't 'cause most of them are funny!